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domingo, 12 de mayo de 2013

Vender los títulos de Apple y comprar los de Google


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sell-apple-buy-google-2013-05-09?pagenumber=1




Jeff Reeves
May 9, 2013, 7:00 a.m. EDT

Sell Apple, buy Google

Commentary: Why the search giant is a better bet than the iPhone maker this year




By Jeff Reeves 

Apple, Google
Google Inc. just topped $860 this week, setting a new high. Shares are up over 20% year-to-date in 2013 and over 40% in the last 12 months.
Some are worried, that like fallen tech star Apple Inc. AAPL -0.83%  , Google is getting too pricey for its own good. But I like Google GOOG +1.00%   stock a lot right now.
In fact, investors clinging stubbornly to Apple may be served well by jumping ship and buying Google instead — even after the recent run-up. Here’s why:
AAPL 452.97-3.80-0.83%GOOG 880.23+8.75+1.00%
Tale of two tech giants
200%
100%
0%
-100%
10
11
12
13
In April, Apple’s earnings were marred by its first profit decline in a decade and continued margin erosion. Google, on the other hand, saw non-GAAP earnings up 15% when it reported earnings in April.
Also, in its April earnings Apple said revenue increased just 11% year-over-year, down from an 18% revenue jump in the previous quarter and 25% increase six months ago. That’s not an encouraging trend and is approaching a rather anemic pace. Contrast that with Google’s sales, which increased over 30% in each of the last three consecutive quarters.
Of course, growth is one thing and sentiment is another. So are Google shares are fairly valued?

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Well, Google has a forward P/E of about 16 right now — right on par with the forward P/E of the entire Nasdaq 100. You can debate whether this stock market is overbought, but investors must admit Google is no more expensive than anything else.
Furthermore, historically Google has regularly traded for much higher earnings multiples. In 2006, for instance, Google had a forward P/E north of 35. And before the financial crisis, its forward P/E was in the high 20s. Historically speaking, 16 is cheap for this stock.
Sure, Apple has a forward P/E of less than 11 right now. But keep in mind Apple’s P/E hovered mostly around the 12 mark for the last few years. And more importantly, with the recent earnings decline you must acknowledge there is a denominator in the price-to-earnings equation. Investors often naively believe a low P/E ratio resolves itself through the “P,” by share prices rising… but if that “E” gets reduced over time the earnings multiple moves higher as well.
For what it’s worth, there are a host of other reasons why I like Google better than Apple.

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Google is in the enviable position of low expectations on the hardware front (unlike Apple, which will get crushed if it its next iPhone isn’t a slam dunk). Even if Google’s efforts with the Nexus family of devices or the rumored “X Phone” fall a bit short, it’s not like investors have everything riding on one hardware launch. Consider this: If Apple was pushing ahead with a boondoggle similar to the geeky Google Glass project … would investors and pundits see it as a bearish sign and proof the company’s product pipeline is exhausted? I think 



Innovation

Google has long been an acquisition machine, in stark contrast to the insular Apple. That has continued in 2013, with the recent purchase of e-commerce firm Channel Intelligence for $125 million and news feed startup Wavii for about $30 million. Remember, Google acquired Android Inc. for a mere $50 million in 2005 — a steal considering the ubiquity of the mobile OS now — but the power of this deal wasn’t evident for years.
Whether it’s Google Fiber or other lesser-known projects, Google continues to explore outside the box ideas. Consider that “other revenues” hit $829 million in fiscal 2012, or 6% of total Google sales. That’s not a rounding error.

Focus

Despite this innovation, Google is not just throwing money around. In 2011, when Larry Page took over as chief executive, he pledged to put “more wood behind fewer arrows,” and a number of creative but money-losing efforts have fallen by the wayside. Google Reader is just one recent example of cost-cutting victims at Google. At the same time, Google has gotten more aggressive about cross-marketing its products or using litigation to protect patents and fight back anti-trust lawsuits.
Some claim Google is going back on its motto “don’t be evil,” but I say it’s simply a $300 billion business acting like a $300 billion business. There’s nothing wrong with focusing on the bottom line, and subsequently, your investors.

Sentiment

Apple has to fend off talk about how it’s the next Microsoft Corp. MSFT +0.09%   — not a fun association when it comes to either building investor confidence or attracting the next generation of hot new developers. Consider that most traders I know are worried that the recent run of for Apple since mid-April to put it about $450 again is a sign that it’s time to short, not a sign that Apple is back. Meanwhile Google has the wind at its back. Stocks do like to climb a wall of worry to keep them honest, but with Apple the worries and volatility may be justified.
This is all not to say that Google will add another 20% by year’s end. I personally think the market is in store for a choppy summer, and I’m not naïve about the challenges to Google’s core advertising business. We just marked the sixth consecutive quarterly decrease in cost-per-click for Google and the online advertising space remains challenging for everyone.
I also acknowledge that, long term, the $100 billion buyback and dividend scheme at Apple cannot be overlooked. That will deliver a lot of capital back to shareholders. And of course the cash flow and cash hoard will provide stability to shares.
But given its fair valuation, the strong growth in sales and earnings and my general sense that Google has its act together, I’d much rather bet on Google than Apple moving higher through year’s end.
(Reeves does not own individual stocks.) 
Jeff Reeves is a financial journalist, armchair stock picker and the editor for InvestorPlace.com. Follow him on Twitter at JeffReevesIP.